MLB · Free public board
Most of today's board is a pass.
We don't sell locks. We publish where the model thinks the market is wrong, the exact price at which it stops being worth playing, and a permanent record of every release — including the ones that lose.
What one card actually tells you
Every release carries a price rail. It's the difference between a pick and a decision.
The price on the board right now. On its own it tells you nothing about whether the bet is good.
What the model thinks the price should be once the book's margin is stripped out. The gap between fair and market is the edge.
The worst number still worth taking. Past it, the position is dead — not because we changed our mind, but because the maths did.
Everything at or better than that threshold. If the market tick sits outside it, don't bet it. That's the whole discipline in one strip.
The record
Net units and ROI are the record. Win rate is decoration — it's trivially inflated by betting heavy favourites.
Cumulative net units
Every settled release in order. Flat stretches and drawdowns stay in the line.
How a market becomes a release
Every market on the slate runs the same path. Most end in a rejection, and the rejections get published too.
Project, then price
Produce a probability with a width to it, strip the vig out of the market's number, and compare. Everything before this step is an opinion.
Run the gates
Lineups, starters, bullpen, weather, injuries. A projection that depends on an unconfirmed lineup waits rather than releases.
Set a walk-away price
Every release carries the number past which it stops being worth taking. No position is playable at any price.
Record it, permanently
Release price, timestamp, stake and model version are stored with the position. On settlement, closing line and CLV. Nothing is edited afterwards.
Get the board when it posts
One email a day when the slate has been evaluated. No picks in the subject line, no manufactured urgency, no upsell while the board is free.